Analyzing the ROI of U.S. Law School Rankings: A Data-Driven Perspective - Part 1: First Time Bar Pass Rates
Sep 9, 2024
Bottom Line Up Front
Our opinionated analysis of data from American Bar Association (ABA) and Bar Examiner says you should aim for a law school from NY, CA, TX, and FL.
Key Metric for ROI - First-Time Bar Pass Rates
Schools in NY, CA, TX, and FL show a high success rate with 25 out of 52 boasting a pass rate exceeding 80%.
Law School Concentration
These 4 states house over a quarter of all U.S. law schools, aligning with their large populations and robust economies.
Economic and Legal Opportunities
These states account for 33.5% of the U.S. population and 32.3% of its GDP, providing ample legal career opportunities.
Fortune 500 Companies
NY, CA, TX, and FL are home to significant numbers of Fortune 500 companies, offering diverse legal work in corporate, energy, tech, and other sectors.
Full Article
When it comes to choosing a law school, we often turn to traditional rankings, such as those published by U.S. News. However, these rankings may not always reflect the full picture of what truly matters to future lawyers: the return on investment (ROI) for their time and money. In this series, we take a different approach.
Rather than merely citing other rankings, we analyzed raw data obtained from the American Bar Association (ABA) and Bar Examiner. Our goal is to present an informed, data-driven viewpoint on which law schools provide the best value for the investment.
The Importance of ROI in Choosing a Law School
Law school is a significant investment, not only in terms of tuition but also in terms of time, energy, and career aspirations. While prestige plays a role, factors like bar passage rates, employment outcomes, and geographic influence are critical when assessing the true value of a legal education. With rising tuition costs, understanding which schools can help you succeed in the competitive legal landscape—and where you’ll be more likely to pass the bar on your first attempt—can make all the difference.
First-Time Bar Pass Rates: A Critical Metric
A pivotal metric for assessing law school performance is the first-time bar pass rate. I have friends who didn’t pass the bar on their first try, and it kind of sucked. It’s a limbo state. They can’t quite start working. But, they still have living expenses. They are not really in school anymore, but they are also not lawyers yet.
In 2023, graduates from schools in New York, California, Texas, and Florida represented over 45% of all first-time passers nationwide. Remarkably, 25 out of the 52 schools in these states - arguably the best law schools in the U.S. - boast a first-time pass rate exceeding 80%. This high success rate not only highlights the quality of education but also the effective preparatory methods these institutions employ.
For prospective students, this is a critical factor to consider. Attending a law school in a state with a high concentration of first-time bar exam passers increases your likelihood of passing on the first try, which in turn can reduce the financial and emotional toll of retaking the exam.
The Scope of Law Schools in the U.S.
There are 195 accredited law schools in the U.S. New York, California, Texas, and Florida are home to 52 of these institutions—more than a quarter of the national total. This concentration in populous states underscores the alignment of law schools with substantial urban markets and legal hubs.
The significant presence of top law schools in New York, California, Texas, and Florida is further amplified by their substantial contributions to the U.S. economy and population. These states are not only populous but also economically vibrant, offering myriad professional opportunities for law graduates. This environment creates a fertile ground for budding legal professionals to thrive post-graduation.
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Professional Opportunities in New York, California, Texas and Florida
In addition to the high concentration of law schools and first-time bar exam passers, New York, California, Texas, and Florida offer a wealth of professional opportunities for lawyers. These states are home to some of the largest and most diverse economies in the United States, with thriving legal markets.
Population, Economic Size
New York
Population: 20.2 million residents - 6.1% of the U.S. population
GDP: $1.7 trillion - 6.6% of the U.S. GDP
California:
Population: 39.5 million residents (11.8% of the U.S. population)
GDP: $3.4 trillion - 13.3% of the U.S. GDP
Texas:
Population: 30.1 million residents (9% of the U.S. population)
GDP: $1.9 trillion - 7.4% of the U.S. GDP
Florida:
Population: 22.2 million residents (6.6% of the US. population)
GDP: $1.28 trillion - 5% of the U.S. GDP
New York, California, Texas, and Florida together account for 33.5% of the U.S. population and 32.3% of the U.S. GDP, with California contributing the largest share in both metrics at 11.8% and 13.3%, respectively.
So if you are looking for the best law schools in the East Coast, you really should be considering the top schools in New York or Florida. And if you want to be on the West Coast or West Coast adjacent (at least physically), you should be considering the top law school in California or Texas.
Legal Markets
New York State has around 187,000 lawyers (ABALegalProfile).
California has approximately 170,000 lawyers (ABALegalProfile).
Texas has about 96,000 lawyers (ABALegalProfile).
Florida has about 85,500 lawyers (ABALegalProfile).
Presence of Large and Prestigious Law Firms
New York: Home to the "White Shoe" law firms, a term used to describe the oldest, most prestigious law firms in the United States, many of which are headquartered in New York City. Examples include Cravath, Swaine & Moore; Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom; and Sullivan & Cromwell.
California: Hosts major law firms, especially in Silicon Valley and Los Angeles, which specialize in technology, entertainment, and venture capital. Notable firms include Latham & Watkins, Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher, and Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati.
Texas: Features prominent law firms known for their work in energy, healthcare, and technology, with big names like Vinson & Elkins, Baker Botts, and Bracewell LLP headquartered in Houston and Dallas.
Florida: While not traditionally known for "prestigious" law firms on the scale of NY or CA, Florida still hosts large, influential firms such as Greenberg Traurig and Holland & Knight that have significant national and international practices.
Fortune 500 Companies
New York: Hosts 54 Fortune 500 companies as of 2023, including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Verizon Communications, which contribute to a high demand for corporate legal services.
California: Has 53 Fortune 500 companies, with a significant presence in tech (Apple, Google, Facebook) and other industries (Chevron, Wells Fargo), creating a diverse array of corporate legal needs.
Texas: With 50 Fortune 500 companies, including ExxonMobil, AT&T, and Dell Technologies, Texas offers extensive opportunities in corporate, energy, and technology law.
Florida: Home to 18 Fortune 500 companies such as Publix Super Markets, NextEra Energy, and Royal Caribbean Cruises, providing a range of opportunities in sectors like retail, energy, and tourism.
Diversity of Legal Markets
New York: Offers a broad range of practice areas from financial services, corporate law, international law, and more, driven by its status as a global financial center.
California: Provides extensive opportunities in tech law, entertainment law, environmental law, and immigration law, reflecting its diverse economy and innovation sectors.
Texas: Has a strong market for energy law, healthcare law, real estate, and immigration law, supported by its leading industries.
Florida: Features diverse opportunities in real estate, elder law, immigration, and tourism-related legal services, reflecting its demographic trends and economic drivers.
Demand for Lawyers and Competitive Salaries
New York: Lawyers in New York City, especially in corporate and specialized fields like IP and finance, are among the highest paid in the country, reflecting the high cost of living and the complexity of work.
California: Salaries for lawyers, particularly in tech and entertainment, are very competitive, also driven by the high cost of living, particularly in cities like San Francisco and Los Angeles.
Texas: Offers competitive salaries with the added benefit of no state income tax, which can significantly increase the take-home pay of lawyers.
Florida: Also benefits from no state income tax, with competitive salaries especially in growing cities like Miami, Tampa, and Orlando.
These factors collectively make these states attractive for law graduates seeking diverse and lucrative legal careers.
The Role of Tier 2 and Tier 4 Law Schools
While the best rated law schools often steal the spotlight, Tier 2 (T2) law schools and Tier 4 law schools also play crucial roles in the legal education ecosystem. T2 law schools, often referred to as 'best law schools in the country' among the second echelon, offer substantial value with solid educational outcomes and more accessible admission criteria. On the other hand, Tier 4 schools, despite facing challenges in prestige and resources, can be the right fit for students seeking specific regional opportunities or specialized legal careers.
Key Insights for Prospective Law Students
Location Matters: States like New York, California, and Texas dominate the legal field in terms of both law school quantity and bar exam success rates. Choosing a law school in these states may offer better opportunities for networking and career placement, as well as a higher likelihood of passing the bar.
Bar Passage Rates Should Guide Your Decision: While rankings are useful, a school’s bar passage rate is arguably more important for most students. Schools with high bar passage rates demonstrate their ability to prepare students for the legal profession effectively.
ROI Over Prestige: Prestige can help, but it’s not the only factor. A law school with a high bar passage rate and strong job placement statistics may provide a better ROI than a more prestigious school with lower success rates.
Conclusion: Choose a Law School with Long-Term Value
In the end, the law school you choose should offer more than just a brand name—it should position you for success in passing the bar and finding meaningful employment. By focusing on schools with strong bar passage rates, especially in states like New York, California, and Texas, you can ensure that your investment in law school pays off.
While traditional rankings have their place, we believe that a data-driven approach—one that looks at outcomes like bar passage rates—offers a more practical perspective for prospective law students.